CIA Brief on Cold War Regional Tensions (1963)

CLASSIFIED MESSAGE. ORIG: JANE BURRELL. UNIT: OCI. DATE: 30 DEC 63. TO: BOOK MESSAGE AS BELOW. FROM: DIRECTOR. INFO: NEAR EAST - AFRICA BRIEF. 1. CYPRUS: PEACE APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY RETURNING TO CYPRUS WITH ONLY A FEW EXCHANGES OF GUNFIRE ON 29 DEC. REPRESENTATIVES OF BRITISH, GREEK, AND TURKISH GOVERNMENTS AND OF TWO CYPRIOT COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TOGETHER IN POLITICAL LIAISON COMMITTEE. BRITISH HAVE TRIED TO ESTABLISH JOINT BRITISH-GREEK-TURKISH PATROLS TO POLICE CEASE-FIRE. BRITISH PATROLS HAVE OCCUPIED ADDITIONAL STRONG POINTS BETWEEN THE GREEK AND TURKISH QUARTERS IN NICOSIA. BOTH ETHNIC COMMUNITIES DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING TO POLITICAL STATUS QUO ANTE. PRESIDENT MAKARIOS, WHO ANTICIPATES SUPPORT OF ATHENS, CONTINUES TO CALL FOR REVISING CONSTITUTION WHICH HE TERMS "UNWORKABLE." THERE IS GROWING SUPPORT IN ATHENS AND AMONG GREEK CYPRIOT LEADERS FOR REDUCTION OF BOTH GREEK AND TURKISH COMMITMENTS ON ISLAND - INCLUDING THE TWO MILITARY GARRISONS - IN FAVOR OF UNILATERAL BRITISH GUARANTEE OF CYPRIOT INDEPENDENCE. TURKISH CYPRIOTS, WITH ANKARA'S SUPPORT, HAVE REVIVED THEIR DEMANDS FOR PARTITION OF ISLAND. TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER ERKIN HAS SAID PARTITION IS ONE OF SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES BUT MAINTAINS THAT SOME "RADICAL" SOLUTION IS NECESSARY. 2. KENYA-SOMALIA: DISPUTE BETWEEN KENYA AND SOMALIA OVER CONTROL OF KENYA'S NORTHEASTERN REGION SEEMS LIKELY TO SHARPEN. SOMALI TERRORISTS HAVE BEEN PARTICULARLY ACTIVE SINCE KENYA BECAME INDEPENDENT OF BRITAIN ON 12 DEC. LAST WEEK KENYA GOVERNMENT'S DECLARING STATE OF EMERGENCY INDICATES IT BELIEVES IT MUST REACT DECISIVELY TO ACTIVITIES OF SOMALI INHABITANTS AND CROSS-BORDER RAIDERS. KENYATTA REPORTEDLY SAID KENYAN FORCES WILL NOT RESORT TO "HOT PURSUIT" ACROSS SOMALI BORDER, SINCE THIS WOULD PERMIT SOMALIS TO INTERNATIONALIZE SITUATION, PERHAPS BY APPEAL TO UN. OBSERVERS ARE SKEPTICAL KENYAN AUTHORITIES CAN CONTROL SITUATION BY PATROLLING THE FIVE-MILE-DEEP "DEAD ZONE" THEY PROCLAIMED ALONG 450-MILE BORDER. ONE LIKELY IMMEDIATE EFFECT KENYAN DECLARATION STATE OF EMERGENCY IS BRING SOMALI GOVERNMENT UNDER PRESSURE GIVE MORE SUPPORT TO GUERRILLAS. ONE REPORT STATES THAT IN MID-DEC MOGADISCIO HAD ALREADY GIVEN THE GUERRILLAS SOME 500 CARBINES AND 7,000 ROUNDS AMMUNITION. CONTINUED SUPPORT, EVEN ON THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE, COULD RESULT IN PROLONGED GUERRILLA WAR AND SEVERE ECONOMIC DRAIN ON KENYA. ETHIOPIA AND KENYA APPARENTLY ARE CARRYING OUT LAST JULY'S MUTUAL DEFENSE PACT, AIMED AT CONTAINING SOMALI INSURGENCY IN BOTH COUNTRIES. ETHIOPIAN MISSION INCLUDING SEVERAL HIGH-RANKING MILITARY OFFICERS LEFT FOR NAIROBI 20 DEC. SOMALI REPUBLIC, WHICH HAS BITTERLY OPPOSED ETHIOPIAN-KENYAN DEFENSE PACT, WILL LIKELY STEP UP SUPPORT OF INSURGENTS IN BOTH KENYA AND ETHIOPIA WHEN IT HEARS OF THIS MOVE. 3. GHANA-USSR: REPORTS THAT GHANA IS DEVELOPING CLOSER TIES WITH USSR, ESPECIALLY IN MILITARY FIELD, CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE. INDICATIONS ARE GHANAIANS ARE CONSIDERING TRAINING WITH SOVIET HELP A NEW MILITARY UNIT SEPARATE FROM OTHER COMPONENTS OF GHANAIAN ARMY. NKRUMAH PROBABLY CONSIDERS REGULAR UNITS POLITICALLY UNRELIABLE BECAUSE THEY ARE WESTERN-TRAINED. SUCH ARRANGEMENT WOULD PROBABLY BRING SOVIET ADVISORS TO GHANA TO TRAIN AND EQUIP UNIT OF PERHAPS BATTALION SIZE. PROJECT ALONG THESE LINES REPORTED EARLY 1963 APPROVED BY NKRUMAH BUT NEVER MATERIALIZED. OTHER RECENT REPORTS STATE NKRUMAH'S GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING SOVIET REQUEST TO LEASE AREA AT TEMA HARBOR, GHANA'S MODERN PORT EAST OF ACCRA. THESE REPORTS, AND OTHERS WHICH INDICATE NKRUMAH OBTAINED SOVIET ASSISTANCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF HIS SECURITY AND INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, FOLLOW SPEECH LAST MONTH IN WHICH GHANAIAN LEADER EXHIBITED STRONGER SENSE OF KINSHIP WITH COMMUNIST WORLD THAN PREVIOUSLY. OVER PAST FEW MONTHS, NKRUMAH EXTENDED SCOPE OF INFLUENCE OF HIS MILITANTLY PRO-COMMUNIST ADVISORS. 4. INDIA: RECENT VICTORY OF PEIPING ORIENTED INDIAN COMMUNIST IN BY ELECTION FOR WEST BENGAL STATE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY SUGGESTS POPULAR APPEAL OF INDIAN COMMUNIST PARTY LEFT WING REMAINS LARGELY INTACT DESPITE CHINESE INVASION OF OCT 1962. AS IN PAST MOST INDIAN VOTERS APPARENTLY DID NOT IDENTIFY COMMUNIST CANDIDATE WITH ANY FOREIGN INFLUENCE. PARTY'S STRENGTH THIS CONTEST WILL BOOST MORALE OF INFLUENTIAL WEST BENGAL COMMUNIST PARTY WHICH FACTIONALIZED BY SQUABBLING BETWEEN LEFTIST LEADERS, WHO CONTROLLED PARTY BEFORE CHINESE ATTACK BUT WERE JAILED AFTERWARD, AND RIGHTISTS WHO SUCCEEDED LEFTISTS TO HIERARCHY. MORE RECENTLY BOTH FACTIONS LEADERS INTERESTED IN DEGREE OF RECONCILIATION WERE ABLE UNITE SUPPORTING SUCCESSFUL BY ELECTION CANDIDATE. INTRA PARTY DIFFICULTIES MAY SOON BECOME MORE COMPLEX. WEST BENGAL GOVERNMENT REPORTEDLY AGREED "IN PRINCIPLE" RELEASE 112 COMMUNISTS SOME OF WHOM RADICALS WHO WOULD SPLIT PARTY RATHER THAN COMPROMISE WHILE MOST INFLUENTIAL APPEAR WILLING SUPPORT PARTY UNITY FOR MOMENT HOPING CAPTURE INTACT WEST BENGAL PARTY AND EVENTUALLY THE NATIONAL PARTY.