CIA on Cuban Subversion in Latin America (1963)

CLASSIFIED MESSAGE 30 NOV 63 03 10Z CITE DIR 86007 1. CUBA-VENEZUELA: THE DISCOVERY OF A LARGE CACHE OF WEAPONS OF CUBAN ORIGIN, ANNOUNCED BY VENEZUELAN AUTHORITIES ON 28 NOV, PROVIDES BEST EVIDENCE IN RECENT YEARS OF CUBAN SUPPORT FOR LATIN AMERICAN SUBVERSIVES. THE VENEZUELAN FOREIGN MINISTER HAS ANNOUNCED THAT CARACAS WILL LAY FORMAL CHARGES CONCERNING THE ARMS CACHE BEFORE A SPECIAL MEETING OF LATIN AMERICAN FOREIGN MINISTERS SCHEDULED FOR DEC. FOLLOWING THIS, CARACAS WILL ASK THAT THE COUNCIL OF THE ORGANIZATION OF AMERICAN STATES BE CONVOKED FOR CONSULTATION ON THE MATTERS. THERE IS DEFINITE PROOF TO SUPPORT THE VENEZUELAN CLAIM THAT THE WEAPONS CAME FROM CUBA. THE APPROXIMATELY THREE TONS OF WEAPONS INCLUDE LIGHT AUTOMATIC RIFLES AND SUBMACHINE-GUNS IDENTIFIED AS AMONG THOSE SHIPPED TO CUBA FROM BELGIUM IN 1959 AND 1960. THERE WERE ALSO MORTARS, BAZOOKAS, RECOILLESS RIFLES, AND AMMUNITION OF US MANUFACTURE. THE EQUIPMENT WAS APPARENTLY DESTINED FOR VENEZUELAN COMMUNISTS PARAMILITARY ARM, THE ARMED FORCES OF NATIONAL LIBERATION. THE CACHE WAS FOUND ON 1 NOV ON A BEACH IN FALCON STATE, SCENE OF THE MOST ACTIVE GUERRILLA EFFORT. THE VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT ASSUMES THAT THE WEAPONS WERE SENT FROM CUBA BY SEA. THIS IS NOT CONFIRMED, BUT CUBAN FISHING VESSELS WERE REPORTEDLY USED TO TRANSPORT WEAPONS TO SOUTH AMERICA DURING THE LATTER PART OF OCT. FOR MORE THAN THREE TIMES THE CASTRO REGIME HAS TRIED TO AVOID ACTIONS THAT WOULD CLEARLY IMPLICATE IT IN DIRECT SUPPORT OF LATIN AMERICAN SUBVERSIVES. THIS EXCEPTION SEEMS TO DEMONSTRATE EITHER THE HIGH DEGREE OF URGENCY WHICH CASTRO NOW GIVES TO HIS SUBVERSIVE EFFORT, OR HIS ESTIMATE THAT THE VENEZUELAN SITUATION NOW IS RIPE FOR A FINAL OFFENSIVE. 2. BRAZIL: RECENT STATEMENTS BY PRESIDENT GOULART AND OTHER PROMINENT POLITICIANS ARE KEEPING POLITICAL TENSIONS HIGH. COMMENTS BY GOULART TO THE EFFECT THAT SOCIAL DISASTER MAY BE IMPENDING IF REFORMS ARE NOT ENACTED HAVE DRAWN SHARP CRITICISM FROM SEVERAL QUARTERS AND MILITARY LEADERS. THEY HAVE ALSO RE-PORTEDLY ENCOURAGED AGITATION BY RIGHTIST ELEMENTS. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT STRAINS ARE INCREASING AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT ARREST OF AN ARMY OFFICER WHO LAST MONTH DEMANDED THE ARREST OF GOVERNOR CARLOS LACERDA. THIS SITUATION HAS WIDENED THE POLITICAL RIFT IN THE ARMY BETWEEN OFFICERS AND SERGEANTS. 3. BOLIVIA-CHINA: MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF BOLIVIA (PCB) WHO HOLD VIEWS SIMILAR TO THOSE OF PEIPING MET ON 15 NOV IN LA PAZ TO ORGANIZE A PRO-CHINESE FRIENDSHIP SOCIETY. THE FORMATION OF THIS SOCIETY IS THE FIRST PUBLIC INDICATION THAT A PRO-CHINESE FACTION EXISTS WITHIN THE PCB. IT HAS BEEN PCB POLICY THAT ANY MEMBER WHO PUBLICLY DISPLAYED PRO-CHINESE SYMPATHIES WOULD BE EXPELED FROM THE PARTY. AS A RESULT THE PARTY'S SCHEDULED MID-DEC NATIONAL CONGRESS COULD DEVELOP INTO A SERIOUS INTRAPARTY STRUGGLE, PARTICULARLY IF THE PRO-SOVIET PCB LEADERS ATTEMPT TO EXPEL THEIR ACTIVISTS. WHILE THE PARTY ACTIVISTS UNDOUBTEDLY ARE ATTRACTED TO THE CHINESE TACTICS OF REVOLUTIONARY VIOLENCE, THEY ARE LIKELY TO HAVE ONLY RUDIMENTARY UNDERSTANDING OF THE MORE COMPLEX IDEOLOGICAL DIFFERENCES INVOLVED IN THE SINO-SOVIET DISPUTE. MOREOVER, THE ACTIVIST WING PROBABLY IS CHALLENGING THE PARTY'S LEADERSHIP LARGELY ON PERSONAL GROUNDS. FOR EXAMPLE, MARIO MONJE, THE PARTY FIRST SECRETARY, HAS ALIENATED MANY PCB STALWARTS BECAUSE OF HIS ALLEGED USE OF PARTY FUNDS FOR PERSONAL PURPOSES. 4. COMMUNIST SCHOOL: THE INTERNATIONAL UNION OF STUDENTS (IUS), A COMMUNIST FRONT GROUP, IS PLANNING TO ESTABLISH A SCHOOL FOR THE TRAINING OF COMMUNIST UNIVERSITY LEADERS. THE SCHOOL REPORTEDLY WILL BE LOCATED IN EITHER BRAZIL OR CHILE. THE SCHOOL WOULD TRAIN YOUNG COMMUNISTS IN THE TECHNIQUES OF STUDENT LEADERSHIP SO THAT THEY WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO COUNTER THE GROWTH OF SOCIAL CHRISTIAN (SC) MOVEMENTS IN THE UNIVERSITIES. IUS OFFICIALS BELIEVE THE SC UNIVERSITY TRAINING SCHOOLS IN WEST GERMANY AND LATIN AMERICA ARE VERY SUCCESSFUL, AND THE COMMUNISTS COULD PROFIT BY ADOPTING THEIR METHODS. TRAINING AT THE PROPOSED SCHOOL WOULD BE FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE YEAR. STUDENTS WHO HAD COMPLETED THE FIRST OR SECOND YEAR OF UNIVERSITY WOULD BE SELECTED IN ORDER TO ALLOW THEM TO HAVE APPROXIMATELY THREE YEARS OF EXPERIENCE AND WORK UPON THE STUDENTS RETURN TO THEIR RESPECTIVE UNIVERSITIES. IN BOLIVIA THE COMMUNIST YOUTH ORGANIZATION REPORTEDLY IS PLANNING TO SET UP A NATIONAL CENTER FOR UNIVERSITY TRAINING OF STUDENT LEADERS FROM WHICH CANDIDATES WILL BE SELECTED TO ATTEND THE PROPOSED INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL. 5. ECUADOR: THE GOVERNING MILITARY JUNTA HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN AN IMPORTANT STEP TOWARD A RETURN TO CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT. THE JUNTA HAS GIVEN APPROVAL TO THE TWO LARGEST POLITICAL PARTIES, THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE RADICAL LIBERALS, TO HOLD NATIONAL CONVENTIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE IMPORTANT SOCIALIST PARTY HAS SO FAR BEEN IGNORED, ALTHOUGH ITS DIRECTOR RECENTLY CALLED FOR PROMPT RETURN TO CONSTITUTIONALISM. 6. CHILE: TASS AND RADIO MOSCOW HAVE NAMED A CORRESPONDENT TO SERVE IN SANTIAGO. ACCORDING TO A VISITING SOVIET JOURNALIST WHO CLAIMS HE IS SOON TO BECOME IZVESTIAS LATIN AMERICAN EXPERT, THE JOURNALIST REPORTEDLY WAS UNDOUBTEDLY REPRESSED BY THE COMMUNISTS BACKED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AND CARABINERO SENATOR, SALVADOR ALLENDE, WHO THE JOURNALIST IS QUOTED AS SAYING APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE GRASP OF EITHER NATIONAL OR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS. 7. HAITI: HAITI HAS BEEN ENGAGED IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH CZECHOSLOVAKIA FOR THE PURCHASE OF WEAPONS. AN ISRAELI NATIONAL IN PORT-AU-PRINCE WHO REPRESENTS CENTROTEX, A CZECH STATE-OWNED TRADING AGENCY FOR IMPORT AND EXPORT OF TEXTILES AND LEATHER GOODS, GOES SO FAR AS TO ASSERT THAT AN AGREEMENT HAS BEEN CONCLUDED WITH CZECHOSLOVAKIA FOR THE PURCHASE OF $300,000 WORTH OF WEAPONS. THE WEAPONS HE CLAIMS ARE TO BE SHIPPED BY CENTROTEX CONCEALED AMONG NORMAL COMMERCIAL CONSIGNMENTS TO METZ AND COMPANY, A LOCAL COMMERCIAL OUTLET IN PORT-AU-PRINCE. THEY ARE TO ARRIVE SOMETIME IN NOV. A RELIABLE REPORT STATES THAT A CZECH BUSINESSMAN REPRESENTING CENTROTEX WAS IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN MID-NOV. THE PRECISE NATURE OF HIS MISSION HAS NOT YET BEEN DETERMINED. CZECH SALES OF FIREARMS ARE HANDLED AS COMMERCIAL DEALS BY THE CZECH TRADE CORPORATION CENTROTEX. THIS CORPORATION ADVERTISES WIDELY AND HAS SOLD CZECH RIFLES AND OTHER SPORT FIREARMS, AND SUITABLE AMMUNITION ALL OVER THE WORLD. DELIVERIES ARE MADE IN ACCORD WITH NORMAL COMMERCIAL PROCEDURES GOVERNING THE SALE AND TRANSPORT OF FIREARMS AND EXPLOSIVES. PRAGUE WOULD JEOPARDIZE THE REPUTATION OF CENTROTEX BY AGREEING TO MISLABEL PACKING CRATES OR TO ISSUE FALSE SHIPPING DOCUMENTS. 8. VENEZUELA: PRESIDENT BETANCOURT IS DETERMINED TO HOLD THE NATIONAL ELECTION ON 1 DEC IN SPITE OF INCREASED TERRORISM BY THE COMMUNIST-DIRECTED ARMED FORCES OF NATIONAL LIBERATION (FALN). ONLY A COMPLETE CATASTROPHE, SUCH AS ASSASSINATION OF ONE OR MORE OF THE LEADING CANDIDATES, COULD NOW RESULT IN A POSTPONEMENT. A PARTY CANNOT SUBSTITUTE A CANDIDATE FOR ONE WHO DOES NOT SURVIVE UNTIL ELECTION DAY, AND THREATS OF AN ELECTION HELD AFTER AN ASSASSINATION WOULD BE CHALLENGED IN THE COURTS AND PROBABLY VOIDED. OBSERVERS FORECAST THE VICTORY OF RAUL LEONI OF BETANCOURT'S DEMOCRATIC ACTION PARTY. OTHERS ANTICIPATE THE ELECTION OF OLD-TIME SOCIALIST JOVITO VILLALBA OF THE REPUBLICAN DEMOCRATIC UNION. ABOUT 65 PERCENT OF THE 3,300,000 REGISTERED VOTERS WILL BE YOUTHS VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME, AND THEY MAY ADD CONSIDERABLY TO VILLALBA'S TOTAL. IN ADDITION, THE COMMUNISTS, WHO HAVE VOTED TO BOYCOTT THE ELECTIONS, MAY NOW VOTE FOR VILLALBA IF THEY BELIEVE THEIR VOTES WILL DEFEAT LEONI. FUTURE DANGERS TO STABILITY WILL ARISE IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN THE ELECTIONS AND THE INAUGURATION IN MARCH. THE FALN WILL CONTINUE AND INCREASE INTENSITY ITS EFFORTS TO DISRUPT THE CONSTITUTIONAL SUCCESSION, WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST IN VENEZUELA'S HISTORY. MILITARY LEADERS, HOWEVER, MAY FIND BETANCOURT'S SUCCESSION UNACCEPTABLE AND INTERVENE. NO PARTY WILL WIN A MAJORITY IN CONGRESS, AND THE POLITICAL JOCKEYING TO FORM COALITIONS DURING THE LAME DUCK SESSION WILL WEAKEN THE GOVERNMENT'S DECISIVENESS AND POWER TO ACT. 9. HONDURAS: LEADERS OF OUSTED PRESIDENT RAMON VILLEDA MORALES' LIBERAL PARTY HAVE NOT YET REBORNED THE MILITARY REGIME WHICH WOULD REESTABLISH A CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT IN HONDURAS WITHIN 18 MONTHS. INDICATIONS ARE, HOWEVER, THAT THE PARTY IS INCLINED TO COOPERATE WITH THE MILITARY IF CERTAIN GUARANTEES, SUCH AS FREE ELECTIONS, ARE FORTHCOMING. ANDRES ALVARADO PUERTO, A LIBERAL PARTY LEADER WHO UNSUCCESSFULLY SOUGHT THE PARTY'S PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION IN THE SPRING OF 1963, MET PRIVATELY ON 23 NOV WITH COLONEL OSWALDO LOPEZ ARELLANO, THE MILITARY CHIEF OF STATE. AS A RESULT OF THIS CONVERSATION, ALVARADO PUERTO SAID HE WAS PREPARED TO ACCEPT THE DECREE AND WOULD TRY TO PERSUADE THE PARTY TO PARTICIPATE IN THE DRAFTING OF A NEW ELECTORAL LAW. HE IS ALSO WORKING TO SECURE THE SUPPORT OF LABOR. THE THREAT OF A GENERAL STRIKE BY LABOR UNIONS IN THE VITAL NORTH COAST AREA APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED. LABOR LEADERS APPARENTLY ALSO FAILED IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO PRESSURE THE DISBANDED CONGRESS TO RECONVENE AND ELECT A SUCCESSOR TO VILLEDA. ANOTHER INDICATOR THAT POLITICAL TENSION MAY EASE IS THE ALLEGED ATTITUDE OF MODESTO RODAS ALVARADO, FORMER LIBERAL PARTY PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. RODAS SAID HE WANTS TO AVOID VIOLENCE AND HAS GIVEN ORDERS TO HIS OWN FOLLOWERS IN THE LIBERAL PARTY TO USE PASSIVE MEANS IN THEIR OPPOSITION TO THE MILITARY REGIME. 10. URUGUAY: THE URUGUAYAN COMMUNIST YOUTH ORGANIZATION (UJC) HAS INVITED THE USSR AND COMMUNIST CHINA TO SEND DELEGATES TO THE UJC CONGRESS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON 28 NOV. A HIGH-RANKING MEMBER OF THE URUGUAYAN COMMUNIST PARTY REPORTEDLY HAS ASKED THE FOREIGN MINISTER TO AID IN GETTING VISAS FOR TWO SOVIET DELEGATES. MEMBERS OF URUGUAY'S PRO-CHINESE LEFTIST REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT (MIR) EXPECT THE CHINESE TO BE REPRESENTED, BUT THERE IS NO EVIDENCE AS YET THAT PEIPING HAS SENT SUCH A GROUP. THE CONGRESS MAY BE THE OCCASION FOR A MEETING OF COMMUNIST YOUTH LEADERS FROM OTHER LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES TO DISCUSS THE SINO-SOVIET DISPUTE. REPORTEDLY SUCH A MEETING WILL TAKE PLACE IN MONTEVIDEO IN LATE NOVEMBER IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE A UNITED POSITION PRIOR TO THE CUBAN-SPONSORED CONGRESS OF LATIN AMERICAN YOUTH (LATC) SCHEDULED FOR NEXT MARCH IN EITHER CHILE OR BRAZIL.